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Will it frustrate planned action on Iran?

No. Russia is now tied down. Their freedom to act has just been reduced. You know: hold 'em by the nose and then kick them in the ass.

The Russians now have what? 30K - 40K troops tied down and their attention concentrated at the cost of 1,000 Americans in the field + a few hundred advisers. Plus there are Israeli advisers in Georgia as well.

Americans are taking no casualties and the Russians seem to be bloodied.

The time for a counter strike at Russia's wind pipe (the Roki Tunnel) is when they have fully extended. To make such a strike before that reduces the effect. As a commenter at the Belmont Club link said they have learned nothing from 1908. Evidently we have.

We will see how stupid the Russians are in the next few days. If they keep advancing while taking losses - i.e. they are goaded into ill considered action - they become more vulnerable every day. If they retreat they lose face. The Georgians need to keep retreating while fighting delaying actions to maintain limited contact and then cut off the Russian wind pipe.

The Roki Tunnel (also Roksky Tunnel) is a road tunnel through the Greater Caucasus Mountains, joining North Ossetia-Alania in the Russian Federation to South Ossetia, a breakaway region of Georgia. The road is manned at the town of Nizhny Zaramag in North Ossetia and is sometimes referred to as the Roki-Nizhny Zaramag border crossing.

The tunnel, completed by the Soviet authorities in 1985, is one of only a handful of routes that cross the North Caucasus Range. It is at about 3,000 meters (9,840 feet) altitude and its length is 3,660 meters. The other routes between Georgia and Russia include the Kazbegi-Verkhni Lars customs checkpoint on the Georgian Military Road, closed since June 2006, and the Gantiadi-Adler crossing in the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia which Georgia believes to function illegally.

The tunnel has been important throughout the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. The South Ossetian authorities use tolls levied on tunnel traffic as one of their main sources of revenue. The Georgian government - backed by the United States - has long called for the Georgian side of the tunnel to be placed under the control of international monitors, rather than the South Ossetian separatists and Russian "peacekeeping" forces [4]. Since the Russian authorities blocked the Kazbegi-Verkhni Lars customs checkpoint in June 2006 the Roki Tunnel has been the only available road route from Russia to Georgia. The tunnel is being used as a supply route during the 2008 South Ossetia War.

Very interesting, Frank. I just read a little blurb about this too:

MIA: Java and Roki Tunnel are Next Targets
Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 9 Aug.'08 / 23:05

Georgian forces killed 60 Russian troopers and destroyed 40 battle tanks in a fierce fight in Tskhinvali and now the Georgian government troops are in full control of the South Ossetian capital attempting to advance further into north, the Interior Ministry has claimed.

After taking over the strategic heights and villages surrounding Tskhinvali and the capital itself on August 8, the Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said, Russian troops backed with combat tanks carried out an attack which was repelled.

“After that Russia has sent its paratroopers, but the attack was again repelled and about 60 troopers have been killed,” Utiashvili said.

He also said that 45 Georgian servicemen and 37 Georgian civilians were killed on August 9. Unofficial reports say civilian and military deaths these days were likely to be more 100.

With Tskhinvali and surrounded areas under the Georgian control, he said, the troops were advancing further having “next target” the town of Java and the Roki Tunnel on high mountainous border with Russia. linky

I don't know how reliable those reports are (kinda hard to believe, aren't they?), but it is SO good to hear that at least in some areas the Georgians have the Russians on the run.

Terrain map - are there any other routes into South Ossetia that the Russian military could use? I know they've still got jets and outnumber/outpower the Georgians so tremendously, but it'd be good to see there are no other routes through those mountains.

I would assume that any passes that could be used by tanks are where the existing roads are.

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Note that there are no rail lines crossing the Caucasus - the only rail line connecting Georgia and Russia is along the Black Sea coast. That should give you a good idea how rugged the terrain is. A long tunnel under the Caucausus, connecting Vladikavkaz and Tbilisi, has been proposed for decades but never built.

The Caucasus are higher than the Alps - note Mount Elbruz, which is 5,642 m above sea level.

I was surprised at that, Mt. Blanc is 4,808 m.

That's the height of the passes in South America.

15,500'

Yipes. Note to self: helicopter ONLY in South America!

For some reason I'd thought Mt. Blanc was bigger than 15,800ft. Guess it is just so famous that I assumed it must reach the moon :O)
There's a plain old ordinary non-famous mountain out my kitchen window that's 11,500, and it doesn't seem all that big. Maybe just used to lookin at it ;O)

There's a plain old ordinary non-famous mountain out my kitchen window that's 11,500,

But that's just a hill, monkeyweather.

#12 floranista: I used to have a view of Mt. Rainier out my living room window as a kid. I miss the view.

Awww :O) I just love Mount Rainier - visited often when I'd go up to see my auntie and uncle in Puyallup. That was my mother's MOST favorite mountain. She grew up looking at it too! To this day Washington to me means daffodils and Mount Rainier ;O)

These are pretty close to my view:pics

I didn't know you were from Washington, Mrs. Lewis! Wow, you're a long way from home, so to speak :-) Those are fantastic pictures. We are 42 miles from Paradise, I haven't been there since I was a kid so we want to drive up after Labor Day.

monkeyweather, I remember you talking about relatives in Puyallup. We are going to the fair this year, I'll have a scone in your honor :-)

So how did Mrs Lewis go from being a Washingtonian with a kitchen window view of Mt Rainier, to being an Albanian?

Paradise

#18 סטרמי Stormi: you want the long story or the short?

The lonnng story with all the gory details please, Mrs. Lewis 8O)

Mmmm. Scones. Floranista, I just found out recently that Trader Joes has scones. They didn't USED to have them.
All these years...living sconeless. What a waste :O(

How cute, Jefe! Old Washington wasn't so much with mining that I know of. All the old Norsky transplants were loggers. When I visited in Norway one of them (a cousin of some sort aged 90) complained that he'd had to listen to everyone talking ENGLISH of all things!
Apparently it warn't just the Norwegians - just found this old photo of a Washington logging community:

Okay, long story...

Parents met in the AF, in Illinois, married, and had me, transferred to Idaho, had my brother, then my Dad retired, and we moved to Washington, where he had family. Lived there (right off Lake Tapps) till I was in Kindergarten, when we moved back east (where my Mom's family is from) because, in part, my Mom couldn't handle the rainy Washington weather. Then it was Connecticut, Vermont, and then finally a 200-year-old farmhouse in central NY. The guy the Last of the Mohicans is based on was buried on a hill down the road from our house. Graduated from HS there, then did college, and after college took state exams for a biology lab position, ended up with a temp job in Albany. After temp job finished, decided to stay here versus blink-and-you-miss-it town, met my husband (who went to HS with a college friend), found a good job, got married, bought house, got pregnant.
Man, that sounds so normal.

Yes Jefe, I figured that right out from the beginning part of the video where it said "KENTUCKY"
hehe :OP

Speaking of, Kentucky looks very nice. Never been there. Only Arkansas and Tennessee. Wished I had seen some real hillbillies, but that day the highways were pretty well clear of locals :O(

Luckily they opened a new road - 2 full, paved lanes, with guardrails and better alignment - on the other side of the valley, so now only tourists and local idiots use that road.

The New Yungas Road
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Completely delusional. This guy lives in a fantasyland.

There's nothing wrong with normal, Mrs Lewis. Growing up I'd have given my right arm for normal.

Well there though:
childhood - normal = Fabulous Stormi :O)
Too bad cooking never turns out that way.
Only works with peoples.

And he's one of these fanatical Bush cultists who reinterprets every world event through a prism that says "Bush made it happen on purpose because he is a p0ker playing genius".

You see what happens when you just can't stop going to InstaPundit, franco?

However, they miscalculated by not announcing in advance "limited objectives". Now it will look like they have been defeated by a fifth rate power with American friends. Bad for morale. Bad for their world image. Having Putin at the Olympics at the start when the generals would be in control with orders to do nothing except to respond to attacks was a master stroke not an error.

Proving once again that Bush plays the game better than any one else currently on the world stage.

I see-LOL. He even had a poll. 4% think Georgia won.

I'd never heard of that tunnel, but when I saw in another article about a plan to blow it up and that it was THE route into South Ossetia, first thing came to mind was "Buckleberry Ferry". Too much LOTR.

Ev, maybe the guy was all ecstatic because there are Americans (and Israelis) there helping the Georgians?
Couldn't quite make out the connection either, so I just figured that must be what he was going on about.

"Bush made it happen on purpose because he is a p0ker playing genius"

A POLL: M. Simon at Classical Values thinks that Georgia actually won and what we're hearing is Russian spin. Most everybody else, however, thinks that Russia won big [link to "BloggerInterrupted"]. What do you think?

Polls are so worthless. Who cares what a bunch of faceless website readers think? Wow, 69% of Instapundit's readers think Russia won. Heads will be rolling in Georgia over this landslide loss.

#33 סטרמי Stormi: I wouldn't say I was too normal. I was the intellectual, non-native outsider in the farming community I grew up in.

I loved going to the local AFB and hearing all the other languages spoken there.

It also didn't help that I was a bit shy, and had a tendency to let other people talk. I still let other people talk, unless I have something valuable to add. Unless I'm in a chatty mood. Then I can't stop being goofy.

You've had an interesting life, and you wouldn't be as strong a person without it. Normal is what you make of it.

A POLL: M. Simon at Classical Values thinks that Georgia actually won

Nice to be able to share and hear opinions....love to hear what people think...but there's so many people acting like they believe that Bush, Obama, Rove, McCain, and even Putin are actually reading their posts!

Makes me wonder if these are the kinds of people who someday will wind up convinced the FBI is bugging their house or somethin, it's just so whacked. Geeze, it's like conspiracy theory turned inside out. "Everyone Is Listening To Me". Good post = immortality/greatness. Bloggers = Kingmakers.
Which reminds me, we should have a poll! :OD

Which reminds me, we should have a poll! :OD

Good idea, monkeyweather. I vote maybe ;-)

I used to play Diplomacy years ago. I was playing Russia and a friend of mine was playing the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The guy whos house it was played Turkey. The first thing Turkey did was make me sign a non-aggression pact and make the Black Sea completely neutral. The guy was kind a dick, so me and my buddy forged a secret alliance, while we were off getting beers from the fridge. So next turn I placed one token fleet in the Black Sea. Dude lost his shit. "What the fuck are you doing?? The Black Sea is neutral!" he yelled. "It is." I replied calmly. "100% neutral." "Then what the fuck is your fleet doing there?" he pointed angrily. "They are...enforcing the treaty, comrade." I said smiling. "I can assure you, no attack will come from there." "Bullshit. If you dont pull the fleet, I'm attacking you next round!" I steepled my fingers to my chin. "It would be wise to reconsider. After all we are a peaceful nation, but we wont tolerate any hostilities." Oh man, he was furious. He threw everything he had at me. "Outrage!" I cried! "Who will come to our aid?" My buddy shouted "The mighty Austro-Hungarian Empire will come to the aid of our Russian allies!" And that was that. We wiped him out. Played for a sucker for the price of a beer.

The moral of the story? World politics and strategy are not a whole lot different from Diplomacy. People are dicks and will do whatever they can do to get ahead, even if it means throwing someone under the bus. Oh, and dont go against Thousand Sons when beer is on the line.

Oh, that totally reminds me that I need to get Diplomacy for my kids.

And Stratego.

Some people wondered why the Roki tunnel wasn't destroyed by the Georgian thugs.

The answer is that would hinder the Israeli-style ethnic cleansing. If you want to read something else than Georgian-American-Jewish agitprop this article/site is rather interesting.

BTW, did you know that at the start of the attack on Tskhinvali, after B-film actor Saakashvili had announced a cease-fire, the Georgian peacekeepers shot their Russian colleagues?

Your link doesn't work, Spook, much like your mind.

'Israeli-style ethnic cleansing"? You truly are just nuts.

I forgot to paste the link

Since it seems the Khazar Jews want to escalate the crisis I now hope the Russians will destroy the BTC pipeline to teach them a lesson.

Georgia is your Cuba and Saakashvili is your Castro. Do you really want to go to DEFCON 2 over this?

What a shame that Holland has no nukes - his fantasies would be funnier that way.

Another interesting article:

August 14, 2008: While Georgian ground forces have been pushed around by the recent Russian invasion, Georgian air defenses have been noticeably more effective. The Russians have admitted to losing four aircraft (three Su-25 ground attack bombers and a Tu-22 bomber flying a reconnaissance mission.) Most, or all, appear to have been brought down by the SA-11 BukM1 surface-to-air missile systems (obtained from Ukraine).

The SA-11 is the successor to the SA-6, which did so much damage to the Israeli Air Force during the 1973 war. The SA-11 launchers are self-propelled and carry four 1,500 pound missiles. The missiles have a 30 kilometer range, and can hit aircraft at up to 72,000 feet. The missiles move at about 2,900 kilometers an hour. The battery radar, which is also self-propelled, can detect aircraft at up to 85 kilometers away. The system can be set up and ready to fire in five minutes. The missile has a 150 pound warhead, that is triggered by a radar proximity fuze.

The Georgians also have some Tor-M1 systems, also obtained from Ukraine. Also known to NATO as the SA-15 Gauntlet, it has a maximum range of 12 kilometers. It is only effective up to 6,000 meters altitude. The system was designed as a successor to the SA-N-8 Gecko. Each launcher carries eight missiles, and it is claimed to be capable of engaging two targets simultaneously. The system was designed to be a tactical battlefield air-defense system, designed to take out close-air-support planes like the A-10 or tactical fighter-bombers like the F-4, F-16, and F-18.

Georgia claims to have downed ten Russian aircraft as of August 11th, and the true air losses won't be known until photos appear of all the aircraft wreckage. It is interesting that Russia was unable to come up with effective countermeasures against missile systems they had designed. The Russians knew of Ukrainian arms exports to Georgia, and the presence of the SA-11s and SA-15s. This is another mystery that will only be explained over time.

From StrategyPage

Psssst... Senorita Evariste - franco reads eenstapoondit of new. He needs of spanking.

"We have two Israeli cabinet ministers, one deals with war [Defense Minister David Kezerashvili], and the other with negotiations [State Minister for Territorial Integration Temur Yakobashvili], and that is the Israeli involvement here: Both war and peace are in the hands of Israeli Jews."

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