bloggie

Most of the world press is reporting that the war in Kenya is between President Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe and Raila Odinga’s Luo tribe. That is what the world believes.

This is exactly what the man men currently sitting comfortably inside State house would like the world to believe.

This is just NOT TRUE. Some of he most violent protests in the country have come from Rift Valley and the tribe here are not Luos. They are Kalenjins. Most of the violence in Nairobi has been in slums where there is a mixture of different tribes from different parts of the country. The same can be said about Mombasa, Kenyas coastal town. In other words what we have in Kenya is a popular uprising against a rigged election where some people have taken advantage to settle scores related to ethnicity. Like the Kalenjins who have been opposed to Kikuyu settlement in their land that happened in the 60s supervised by Kenya’s first president Mzee Jomo Kenyatta.

It gets more complex because most Kenyans seem to be venting out their anger on Kikuyus.

All three of Kenya's presidents since independence in 1964 (Jomo Kenyatta 1964-1978, Daniel Arap Moi 1978-2002, Mwai Kibaki 2002-present) have been Kikuyu (AKA Gikuyu, Agikuyu.) The group can be seen in the light blue area in south-central Kenya.

-click below for full size-:

Kenya is a country of great ethnic diversity.

Ethnic groups
Agikuyu 23%, Abaluhya 14%, Jaluo 13%, Kalenjin 11%, Akamba 10%, Abagusii 8%, Ameru 8%, Somali 3%, other African (including Swahili people, Pokomo, Giriama, Rabai, Duruma, Chonyi, Digo, Kauma, Taita, Meru, Turkana, Orma (Oromo), Wasanye, Wanyoyaya, Borana, Rendille, El Moran, Malakote, Embu, Teso, Gabra, Ndorobo, Maasai) 13%, non-African (Asian/Desi, Anglo-African/European, and Arab) 1%.

Religious affiliation
Protestant 45%, Roman Catholic 25%, Islam 10%, Traditional Religions 10%. Others include Hinduism, Sikhism,Jainism and the Bahá'í Faith.

The Kalenjins can be found in the purple area of west-central Kenya, the Luos can be found in the orange area in the southwest.

Every election is a high stakes affair, involving as always aggressive campaigning, passionate speeches, oratory to rally the troops, spin in newspapers, flyering, lies -contortions and outright falsification and even the macho grandstanding that we as Kenyans have come to accept as part and parcel of our political culture. That is standard fare, expected and a part of the competitive aspect of modern politics.But some actions go a little too far, especially because once committed they unleash forces that cannot be restrained and whose effect will be most difficult to mitigate against.

1.What the ODM has introduced in this election, is a determined effort to decide that any result that does not have them winning both State House and Parliament has been arrived at by a nefarious rigging scheme. This crusade is so determined and nothing it seems is too large a stretch for it. Not content with demonising Steadman the pollsters, they are now determined to paint a picture using some alien logic of a collusion by the media and the all the pollsters to give a low 40s approval figure to Raila Odinga, when he instead should have a 55% backing.

2.This idea, that ODM already has the election sewn up and that the government is planning to rig it out of its legitimate victory has been repeated so often, and given such prominence by the ODM friendly East African Standard, and the party's top officials that is now accepted in many quarters as truth. This is especially the case given two crucial characteristics of our electorate. The first is that the majority live in concentrations where one candidate or party holds sway. A man living in Oyugis for example or in Kerugoya is unlikely to have met more than five people of political persuasion different than his own.

3.ODM has proved very adept at drawing out large crowds, and their candidate is without a doubt the most skilful of the candidates on the pulpit. These large numbers, beamed about the country indicate the ODM leader's popularity with the youth and the unemployed; they indicate the curious thrall in which the colourful ODM juggernaut holds large parts of the country. What these television and print images do not show however is in what standing the ODM leader is held by those employed in activities that would preclude their attendance of his rallies, it does not reflect the evolution of perception or indeed give a breakdown across the different national regions.

4.These fantasies, unhindered by a media that has totally abdicated its role as public watchman, are based on ignorance of the fact that there are already massive measures in place by the political parties, local NGOs and foreign observers to ensure that the election is regulated in compliance with the law. They also choose to ignore the fact that since the 2002 elections, the ECK pays a mere coordinating role with the actual counting taking place at the polling station, rather than at some underground point of rigging. But this is not private knowledge; the ODM knows that the government cannot rig the election. Even more, the ECK chairman has indulged the Orange parties and has bent over backwards to prove to them that there is nothing untoward going on. Still, they persist, and yesterday the ODM's presidential candidate was in meetings with the American Ambassador, seeking to internationalise the issue of his most fertile imagination.

5.These imaginings are a political ploy, straight out of the perpetual victim philosophy that has caused its candidate to repeatedly allege that the State had hired assassins to finish him off. So should we pay him any mind? Yes, Raila's cries must not be ignored because they influence many Kenyans perception and are from his lips a powerful cudgel, as dishonest and irritating as they may be. It is commendable that the ECK is doing everything in its power to prove Raila's claims not only untrue but also unreasonable. The claims about the black-book and double registrations for example have been properly dealt with and with 20,000 observers from the EU alone; there will be no voting station that is unwatched.

6.It is clear what the ODM parties are trying to do. Their employment of the talents of **** Morris evinces this desire to win at all costs, fair or foul and it is a strategy that Kenya can ill afford. **** Morris, for those Kenyans who may have forgotten is particularly famous for his involvement in the 'revolution' of the Ukraine where his strategy was to flood the streets with flag-carrying protesters after the election, thereby creating the perception of a defeated government that had rigged itself back into office. Just like in the Ukraine, it is clear that in Kenya, an opposition win is the desired result for both the British and the American governments. These governments then went on to underwrite the sustained effort of the demonstrations and its international portrayal as a display of democratic will, against an unpopular government never mind that half the country supported the incumbent. The international media are already being alerted to the role they will be required to play in this coup, a make-believe spontaneous 'Orange Revolution' coming to our streets if Raila and his shadowy allies are not pleased with the election result.

7.The election is unlikely to be glitch free, and the need to vigilance can hardly be overstated but it is also fact that such a large conspiracy as the ODM suggests would not go off succesfully. Indeed so slim are its chances of success, that it is extrememly unlikely that any such attempt will even be made. There is a big difference between random electoral failures and a concerted campaign to cheat at the elections. Any such scheme would long ago have been discovered, not just for its sheer unwieldy nature, but also because the polling officials are drawn from all corners of the country and have in all likelihood support for all shades of political opinion, including being supportive of the ODM.The media must now point out to Kenyans that the national population dispersion is such that the president may be dominant in only two provinces, but still have a large percentage nationwide. Articles such as Dennis Onyango's in the Standard or Raila Odinga's statement that because he was leading in all but two provinces and only just in the national polls, then the opinion polls were definitely biased will only serve to incite the public who cannot be expected to comprehend basic statistics. Statements such as ODM secretary general Anyang' Nyong'o's assertion that it is impossible to close a five point gap in the approval ratings also fly against reason, especially as earlier in this very year, his party's candidate lagged far behind in the opinion polls. To the innocent mwananchi, already driven into frenzy by the heat and passion of the campaign period, it will be difficult to accept defeat after such rhetoric. Worst of all, this is an attempt at blackmail against the PNU, essentially a demand that the PNU stop campaigning and concede the election, or else...

Never has there been a shocking national crisis that I've cared so little about. Sorry, Kenyans, you're just not in my Monkeysphere.

Actually it could be neatly cleaved down the middle, just like Belgium. The east could go to Ethiopia and Somalia, the west could go to Uganda, and the Maasai part in the far south could go to Tanzania.

A Kenyan colleague of mine explained the whole tribal thing to me. It seems that the African continent as a whole suffers from tribal rivalries. Until that ends, Africa is doomed to strife and war.

Well, yes, the tribal thing is the most important thing to understand. I remember learning this lesson well as during the course of an eventful year in South Africa, a SA graduate student friend of mine at Berkeley routinely anticipated developments there well in advance by simply explaining and analyizing the tribal angle to those events.

He told me (I quote from memory): "The problem with Americans and how they see South Africa is that you've imposed your own categories--black, white--on a society that does not remotely function on that basis, even with Apartheid. What's important is tribe, be it Zulu, Afrikaner, Xhosa or English."

Let's not forget that Europe was quite prone to lethal tribalism until relatively recently.

Hi baldilocks!

Hey Sweetie!

I'm ok. Just worried about Kenya (my father is from there). How about you? I slid in here from Andrew Sullivan's place! :-)

I'm doing great! I hope your father's folks are OK.

Um... that don't sound so good.

LOL, Stormi!

Thank you, good folks.

Kenya's Crisis - Not Quite What It Seems
Excerpt: Kenya's Crisis - Not Quite What It Seems
Weblog: discarded lies - hyperlinkopotamus
Tracked: Jan 3, 2008 9:19:37 AM

Damn, I guess Sullington picks and chooses the trackbacks after all.