bloggie

friday, august 22, 2014 12:50 am zst

Mediterraneanakia

hyperlinkopotamus

zorkmidden left a comment at 9:46 pm 08/21
evariste and papijoe have also commented
kianb left a comment at 1:17 pm 08/19
franco cbi left a comment at 5:24 am 08/18
evariste is also here
zorkmidden left a comment at 9:28 pm 08/14
packen is also here
franco cbi left a comment at 4:32 am 08/19
packen, evariste, zorkmidden, and evariste @ large have also commented
evariste left a comment at 10:05 am 08/13
franco cbi is also here
evariste left a comment at 5:47 pm 08/10
franco cbi left a comment at 12:14 pm 08/10
packen and evariste have also commented
evariste left a comment at 11:14 am 08/09
franco cbi left a comment at 1:12 pm 08/08
The Sanity Inspector is also here

Sweden's enormous, hidden unemployment rate

How reliable is the official Swedish statistic that 5.4% of Swedes are unemployed? Every single day, one in every 20 employed Swedes is "out sick". That, as bizarre as it sounds, is just the tip of the iceberg: one of Sweden's leading leftist economists has broken through the blue line to tell the truth. True Swedish unemployment is in the range of an obscene 20-25%. So much for the Socialist paradise. Full employment is a pipe dream when you give people incentives not to work, and disincentives to work.

Estimating the true unemployment rate
Below is a calculation of true unemployment in Sweden. All figures are from the Swedish Statistical Agency (SCB) Labor survey, first quarter 2005, except the number of individuals only on welfare, which have been taken from Tax researcher Dane Nordlings homepage. The number on Sick Leave have been adjusted for the number of working hours.

Population 16-64 - -- - - 5.755.000

Not in labor force - - - - - - 1.365.000
Early retired - - - - - - - - - (494.000)
Seek work - - - - - - - - - - - (150.000)
Get Welfare - - - - - - - - - - (84.000)

Labor Force - - - - - - - - - 4.391.000
Unemployed (5.6 %) - - - - - (245.000)
unemply programs - - - - - (130.000)
Employed in Real job - - - - 4.016.000
Absent from work - - - - - - (554.000)
Of which on Sick leave- - - (216.000)

Actually work - - - - - - - 3.469.000
Some 4.0 million (70 percent of adult population) are in productive activity rate, while 1.2 million (20 percent of adult population) are living of welfare and Health or Unemployment insurance alone. The remaining 10 percent of adult population are supported by the state by other means (such as parents leave and absence from work due to care of sick children).

Range of estimate of true unemployment: 8.5%-26%
So how high is Swedish unemployment? The question hinges on who we include, and especially in Sweden’s case on how much of early retirement and sick leave is hidden unemployment. Even the Swedish government acknowledges that the 130.000 in “Labor market political programs” are simply unemployed, so we start from a low estimate of 8.5 percent unemployment.

For international comparisons we probably should not include the students and other’s who want to work but cannot find a job, since this category exists in all countries. This figure is however interesting for policy matter in Sweden. Also including welfare recipients we get 13.2 percent unemployment. A difficult question is what to do with all the absentees. If we include all of them we end up with 26 percent unemployment. Note that we are not including absentees for any other reasons than Sick Leave and are also excluding the underemployed.

Now this last figure is clearly too high. Many people who report sick are of course really too sick to work. This latter figure does however show us the range of the unemployment figure, and is probably closer to the actual number than 8.5 percent unemployment. An important question is how many who could go back to work if they did not have the option to stay home and live of government welfare. An international comparison might be interesting.

Sweden had some 26 dayslost per worker in 2002. In Canada, also a large welfare state, the corresponding figures (2004) were 7.5 daysper full time worker lost every year due to sick leave. Britain had a similar figure, 7.2 dayslost per worker and year in 2003.

Our best estimate of true unemployment figures in Sweden
A plausible estimate of how much of early retirement that is due to inability to work can be attained by using the rates of early retirement in Sweden in 1960. This is an exaggerated figure, since people are much healthier today and have less demanding jobs. Also, Sweden had a welfare state even back then. The sick leave that is due to inability to work can be estimated by using a figure slightly above that of Canada. Also this is an exaggerated figure, as Canada is also a welfare state.

By using these estimates and not counting the forced student, the underemployed or all other absentees, the Swedish unemployment rate would be 19.8 percent. This is fully 962.000 out of work of a workforce of 4.848.000.
Quote is selective; read the whole thing.

Posted by evariste on Apr 17, 2006 2:00 pm

no comments yet

recent comments

That was a very good read, thanks kian!
I don't sympathize with his bitterness though. I'm a gamer and a game developer and it's my love for games
' The problem we generally have is just that Intel drivers – almost always Intel – simply crash our
' Of course, 99% of the time, when things didn’t work it was just because the customer had shitty
' By which I mean, independent game developers get more nasty shit from gamers than they get praise. '
Is that Ronald McDonald behind Superman?
The more I hear about Ebola, the more I want to watch World War Z for the fiftieth time.
The article in the Sacramento Bee had an accompanying poll "How concerned are you that you'll catch Ebola" or something
[ Phew! We can all breathe safely now. ]/ (Except for evariste, who is still in quarantine.)
I'm 14 and I had sex for the first time and the condom broke and I had no idea I
She told me so in a way that I won't soons forget.
I have it on good authority that patient zero is not zorkie either.
Don't look at me, I am only in quarantine for regular observation not for ebola. Also, I told
Oh and feel free to edit my headline with the correct spelling of Sacramento
Saw this and thought of you zorkie. We'll keep you in prayer that its NOT Ebola.
[img] Ha ha ha.
Not sure about taking this article serious or not. I just thought it sounds pretty funny.
[img]
Typically eaten with the fingers, with skin left on the potatoes.
A typical meal from the _ Altiplano _ of Bolivia: [img] _ Charqui de llama _
Camellama, awww.... [img]
They just don't get the chance very often :-)
Did you know camels and llamas can breed?
[ #63 ]/ evariste Camel burgers are also pretty gross. I did my time in the
I love the profile of the Aymara woman in the bowler hat.

home

this & that

bloggie pulse: circulation
last 15 minutes:
31
last hour:
62
last 24 hours:
722
bloggie pulse: comments
since midnite:
0
last 24 hours:
13
in our lifetime:
5746