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evariste
Israel: prepared and able to attack Iran by March
To recap a previous post, there have been more and more interesting deployments by the USAF to the Middle East, both in number (a wing has 72 planes; we just sent 5½ × 72 over there) and in kind (F-117a, F-16C/D, F-15E, A/OA 10). Five entire fighter wings: the 388th, the 49th, the 122nd, the 4th and the 18th. On top of that, two fighter squadrons (four=a wing, I think, so this is another half-wing) have deployed for four month rotations in recent days: the 336th and the 355th. And now, Israel is making far more belligerent noises than we've been accustomed to hearing with regard to Iran. We've gone from Israel saying "this is the whole world's problem" to this: Israel prepares to launch attack on Iran nuclear sites. Things are heating up fast.

correction: the 336th is part of the 4th wing, and therefore redundant, being already included in the count. The 355th is part of the 3rd Wing (which is under the Pacific Command and not CENTCOM, interestingly enough) and therefore is "interesting".
ISRAEL is set to strike nuclear targets in Iran if the United Nations fails to take action against the rogue state, intelligence sources claim.
Military chiefs have told the United States that they are ready and able to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons facilities - with an attack as early as March.
Israeli military chiefs say their plans to strike Iran's nuclear sites are "feasible", say intelligence sources.
They claim the Israelis are certain that an attack by their military machine would be as effective in destroying the Iranian project as it was against the Iraqi Ossiraq nuclear site in 1981. An Israeli missile attack would be expected to set back Iran's nuclear weapons programme by up to 10 years. The new government of acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also wants President Ahmadinejad to understand that the incapacitation of Ariel Sharon, following his stroke, would not affect Israel's state of military readiness.
A recent statement by the Israeli military chief of intelligence, General Aharon ZeeviFarkash, indicated that Israel had set a March 1 time limit for diplomatic means to deter Iran's plans. Sources in Tel Aviv say the general's remarks were based on a military planning timetable and could indicate a likely date for the missile strike. General Dan Halutz, Israel's chief of staff, said last week that there were several military means to deal with the problem.
He ordered a report as part of strategic cooperation talks with the United States and it was discussed recently when senior Israeli military figures met the heads of several US intelligence agencies.
Israeli air force fighter pilots have been training for the past 10 years to survive antiaircraft and radar threats from Soviet antiaircraft systems which have been sold to Iran and other Middle Eastern states.
The Israelis have also received help from former Soviet or Russian anti-aircraft officers who emigrated to Israel.
The Israeli air force also chose recently to reveal details of its cooperation with Iran's neighbour Turkey, including the deployment of Israeli fighter jets there and Turkish squadrons in Israel as part of a joint training programme.
filed under cry of the peacock on Jan 17, 2006 3:13 pm
65 comments, latest by cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 4:53 pm 1/24
#1 evariste at 3:22 pm on Jan 17, 2006
#2 evariste at 3:27 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Credit for the correction goes to lady redhawk.
#3 zorkmidden at 3:30 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Wow. A joined Israeli-American action. That's as it should be.

A recent statement by the Israeli military chief of intelligence, General Aharon ZeeviFarkash, indicated that Israel had set a March 1 time limit for diplomatic means to deter Iran's plans.

I wonder if this has anything to do with the Security Council talks (if Iran is referred to the UNSC it would be in the beginning of February and this sounds like it would happen immediately after.)

#4 evariste at 3:32 pm on Jan 17, 2006
I've edited the article down to the parts that I thought were important, so do click over and read the whole thing if you want.
#5 lady redhawk at 3:39 pm on Jan 17, 2006

A recent statement by the Israeli military chief of intelligence, General Aharon ZeeviFarkash, indicated that Israel had set a March 1 time limit for diplomatic means to deter Iran's plans


That date is quickly approaching. The Turks are training with the Israelis, and the U.S. is moving a massive amount of air power.

Buckle up.

#6 zorkmidden at 3:42 pm on Jan 17, 2006
ev, you've done a good job covering the Iran issue and the deployments. Thanks.
#7 lady redhawk at 3:45 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Yes ev, thanks for keeping abreast of this.

I just read the article that was linked in #1. It was chilling.
#8 lady redhawk at 3:51 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Olmert was rattling his saber earlier today.
#9 Earl at 3:59 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Thx., ev, for the timely posts.
#10 monkeyweather at 4:02 pm on Jan 17, 2006

That's as it should be.


True!
But why did the words "Custer's last stand" just pop into my head?
Well - here's hoping the US backs its ALLY Israel more honestly in coming days, huh? They'll need it.
Who knows what will happen once this thing is launched. At a guess, Israel is gonna have some problems with a few of its less-than-neighborly neighbors.

#11 monkeyweather at 4:03 pm on Jan 17, 2006

Olmert was rattling his saber earlier today.


Olemrt has a saber? WHo knew. WHat's it made outta? Spaghetti?

Ooooh - I got a cognac! How kewl! ;O)

#12 airforcewife at 4:21 pm on Jan 17, 2006

A joined Israeli-American action. That's as it should be.


I would agree with that.

But no matter how tough the talk leading up to it, as soon as we/they/us take out the damn threat the rest of the world (rather than being grateful) will be up in verbal arms (because they wouldn't DARE the real thing) over our "rush to war" and evil racebaiting, and "murdering innocent women and children who were living the traditional Persian life" on top of whatever it is we shoot down.

Maybe we'll see a few more baby formula signs in English, too.

As an aside... I had to buy some more scrub last weekend, and when I saw a booth in the mall for Dead Sea scrub (Israeli owned and the franchise was owned by an Israeli living in the US also) I bought there.

Good stuff.

But it left me feeling vaguely uncomfortable (the proprietor and I talked for about 45 minutes - and haggled, which he seemed inordinately pleased to do but I got 10$ off)to be more hawkish than the Israeli I was buying my products from.

#13 Pamela Παμελα at 5:10 pm on Jan 17, 2006

lady redhawk
Buckle Up




Yep I've been trying to tell my lib friends(I am surprised I still have them) that they need to develop a stronger stomach.

Arab countries HATE Turkey with a passion, just wait untill they are with us in the war against Iran and the mad mullahs.

#14 kianb at 6:19 pm on Jan 17, 2006
I see that George W. is finally waking up and is preparing the logistics he desperately tried to avoid for the last 8 months. This probably means he is fairly convinced. Better late than never, George. Just let the things coming. And Israel, is already prepared.

Please get your protective mask and read the instructions on what to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent.
#15 kianb at 6:45 pm on Jan 17, 2006
#16 zorkmidden at 6:47 pm on Jan 17, 2006
#17 Meshuganah Max at 6:59 pm on Jan 17, 2006
So then -- it looks like the world will end in March....

#18 kianb at 7:36 pm on Jan 17, 2006
#16 Yes Zork, it's very sick. A little bit further in the history, Khomeini was the first one who called Israel a "cancerous tumour"[sic] in the 1950's. Long before he came to power, and long before any world leader had to rethink his/her strategies to battle with islamic jihadists inside their countries, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was coping with the serious problems that was bound to threat the whole world in about 3 decades later and in a time that Shah needed support against these mullahs, the world closed his eyes and abandoned Shah. Then when Iranian people revolted serveral times and asked for world's support and attention, the world closed his eyes and abandoned them again. And this is more or less how we got here.



#19 zorkmidden at 10:06 pm on Jan 17, 2006
NUCLEAR: IRAN CLOSER TO THE BOMB THAN THOUGHT. And we have Musharraf to thank for that.

The location is Islamabad, the date 11 February 1999, the 20th anniversary of the Islamic revolution led by Ayatollah Khomenini in Iran. Pervez Musharraf, head of the armed forces but not yet president [the coup which toppled the government of Nawaz Sharif was still six months away] pays a visit to the Iranian embassy.

The international community is watching Pakistan with concern and consternation. The previous year it had carried out its first nuclear tests in the remote areas of Baluchistan, the nuclear trafficking activities of Dr A.Q. Khan were already known in part to the US intelligence establishment and suspicion was mounting that Pakistan may have lent a hand to other countries in the race for nuclear weapons.

The attitude of the Islamabad government at the time was dismissive, reflecting ithe words of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan’s president from 1971 to 1973, when Pakistan’s nuclear programme was just getting off the ground. “There is a Christian Bomb, a Jewish Bomb and a Hindu Bomb. There must be an Islamic Bomb!"

On his way out from meeting the Iranian ambassador, Musharraf is greeted by a small group of Pakistani journalists. One of them asks whether it is true that Pakistan is helping Tehran in building a nuclear weapon. With a knowing wink at the ambassador Musharraf smiles. “It's natural that friends help one another? he says.

That episode was never reported in the media because agents of the powerful ISI intelligence apparatus approached the journalists and “asked? them not to write even a line on what they had heard.

#20 annie at 10:50 pm on Jan 17, 2006
Thanks for this post ev, and for all your other posts on this subject. It's easier to make sense of it all when all the articles are gathered together in one place like you've done.

I read Monkeyweather's link in #1 and it took me half way through the article before I realised they're an "anti-war" site. (OK, I'm only on my first coffee of the day, that's my excuse.) I can hardly beleive people can be such idiots. Do they think the Iranians will spare them if, Heaven forfend, they win the nuclear war?

They are so twisted in their anti-Americanism they can't see beyond the end of their own noses.

As to the rest of the post, I sincerely hope all these different nations can coordinate properly. Last time Israel held military exercises with the Americans, they won by mistake :-D They finished the whole war game before the Americans had got off the ground. That tends to happen in real time too with the Israelis, so I hope there's a "conductor" in place who'll know how to keep everyone in tune.
#21 pilots wife at 3:57 am on Jan 18, 2006
Hey--not wanting to rain on anyone's parade but the AF is sort of in a normal rotation cycle. And the squadrons that are deploying are replacing others that are returning home. I'm sitting in the middle of the 4th Fighter Wing (mighty Strike Eagles) and can tell you for sure that the whole wing is NOT gone. It's a pretty normal AEF rotation that's been on the books for awhile--no surprises or short notice orders for the folks who are going (or those of us waving good-bye).
#22 Jesus is watching you at 4:00 am on Jan 18, 2006
OPSEC is everyone's responsibility.
#23 Aridog at 4:08 am on Jan 18, 2006
#21 pilots wife
Hey--not wanting to rain on anyone's parade but the AF is sort of in a normal rotation cycle. And the squadrons that are deploying are replacing others that are returning home. I'm sitting in the middle of the 4th Fighter Wing (mighty Strike Eagles) and can tell you for sure that the whole wing is NOT gone. It's a pretty normal AEF rotation that's been on the books for awhile--no surprises or short notice orders for the folks who are going (or those of us waving good-bye).

I tend to agree with you, but I also note Rumsfeld's cautionary comments yesterday, captitalizing on the movements, none-the-less. Pragmatically, if an overt action is undertaken, it very likely will be with assets in place, on both sides of Iran, with back filling as necessary. I would certainly hope the assumption is not being made that we are safe in place if another nation acts pre-emptively.

My best to your husband and the forces in which he serves. Many of us forget just why it is we are at liberty in the first place.
#24 Earl at 5:46 am on Jan 18, 2006
#19 zork

Interesting. Confirms yet-again that Sunni Deobandists readily make common cause with mahdaviat Shi'ites against the Great/Little Satans.
#25 evariste at 6:12 am on Jan 18, 2006
pilots wife-well, my uninformed and irresponsible speculation was fun while it lasted :-D
#26 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 6:18 am on Jan 18, 2006
ev, are you up early or up late?
#27 SnoopyTheGoon at 6:22 am on Jan 18, 2006
Somebody, please take care of Meshuganah Max. He is looking more dangerous than all these aircraft listed.
#28 evariste at 6:25 am on Jan 18, 2006
Late, cba :-) My office computer rebooted itself without warning about six times while I was trying to write code, and since it's the computer I make my living on and my whole work environment is there I stayed up all night fixing it. Windows is so damn brittle :-( I made absolutely no changes to the damn thing (I'm very conservative about installing stuff on it), but it just started going up and down like a fucking yoyo and then the sixth time it refused to boot at all. So I tried a "dirty install" (so-called "repair install" or "in-place upgrade"), which stalled, then I did a chkdsk, which took an entire two hours (I guess all that crashing and rebooting wasn't too kind to my hard drive) and finally another attempt at a dirty install which also failed. Eventually I just decided to install another copy of Windows in parallel on the same drive and recreate my whole work environment. The new Windows install took 45 minutes, and for the rest of the night (since 4 AM) I've been reinstalling all the software that I use. Luckily my source code is in an offsite repository that I commit my changes to daily, so even if my hard drive had crashed I would still be only out a day's worth of coding, but still, what a royal pain in the ass. Anyway I just finished 20 minutes ago. I've still drinking beer, I haven't adjusted to it being morning yet :-)
#29 evariste at 6:26 am on Jan 18, 2006
Snoopy, har.
#30 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 6:36 am on Jan 18, 2006
evariste, that sucks.

Sorry to hear it. Hope the day goes better from now on.
#31 evariste at 6:37 am on Jan 18, 2006
It will, you can't keep a bastard like me down :-)
#32 evariste at 6:41 am on Jan 18, 2006
I'm omitting that Windows helpfully saved 5 of the crash dumps for me, each of which, in kd (a windows kernel debugger), tattled on a different culprit. I think I must have a bad stick of RAM, because I'm pretty sure each of the drivers Windows is claiming to be bad is pretty good, and they certainly can't all be bad. I tried swapping in different sticks of RAM in various orders to isolate the bad one but couldn't, so it might be my motherboard or CPU. *still scratching my head over why a computer that's been rock-solid for ages has presently turned into shit*
#33 evariste at 6:43 am on Jan 18, 2006
Anyway, I'm simultaneously wired and exhausted. Kind of that "stayed up all night smoking crack" feeling.
#34 AM42 at 6:45 am on Jan 18, 2006
Doh! That totally sucks ev. I was just checking bloggie and was wondering why you were up so early.

Anyhow, thanks for keeping on top of the Iran stories.
#35 evariste at 6:46 am on Jan 18, 2006
#33 evariste
Anyway, I'm simultaneously wired and exhausted. Kind of that "stayed up all night smoking crack" feeling.

Not that I ever have. But I can empathize, now.
#36 Stormi at 6:48 am on Jan 18, 2006
#33 evariste
Anyway, I'm simultaneously wired and exhausted. Kind of that "stayed up all night smoking crack" feeling.

So basically like being in college, week before finals kinda thing?
#37 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 6:51 am on Jan 18, 2006
Am I the only one who didn't do drugs as a youngster?

Yes, I led a sheltered life...
#38 evariste at 7:02 am on Jan 18, 2006
Heh, Stormi, that's the one :-)
#39 evariste at 7:03 am on Jan 18, 2006
#37 cba γβα גב? ابت вба
Am I the only one who didn't do drugs as a youngster?

Yes, I led a sheltered life...

Want some brownies?
#40 Fay at 7:03 am on Jan 18, 2006
#37 cba γβα גב? ابت вба
Am I the only one who didn't do drugs as a youngster?

Yes, I led a sheltered life...
No.

Not as an oldster either.
#41 evariste at 7:07 am on Jan 18, 2006
My friends who are a bit older than me and used to smoke pot tell me their bodies feel the bad parts more than the good parts now, plus it's embarrassing* to be an old dude trying to score some weed. So I'm gonna enjoy it while I still can. Which, I can't really, since I haven't had a steady supply of pot in months. Boo hoo hoo.
*old hippies are exempt, since they lack all sense of shame
#42 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 7:11 am on Jan 18, 2006
#40 Fay
No.

Not as an oldster either.
Whew. I was thinking I was the only one. (Although my daughters did say they were going to bake me some brownies over the Christmas break. Luckily they didn't get around to it.)
#43 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 7:13 am on Jan 18, 2006
ev, I guess I missed your #39.

When hubby and I were discussing the kids' plan I said, Wouldn't it be a hoot if they just baked some regular brownes, told me they were regular brownies but were laughing their heads off to make me think they were "special," and then stood back to see if I'd have a psychosomatic reaction.

#44 evariste at 7:19 am on Jan 18, 2006
Heh. That reminds me of the first (of several) times that I unsuccessfully took LSD. It was really late, like 3 AM, and I was already drunk and tired, and my friend Matt put a few drops on my tongue, and him and Heather did the same. They tripped balls. I kept thinking I was perhaps finally starting to trip, and realizing that I was just delirious and tired. It was to be the first of many disappointments for me with acid.
#45 evariste at 7:20 am on Jan 18, 2006
Damn it, her name wasn't Heather, it was H-something.
#46 evariste at 7:20 am on Jan 18, 2006
Helen! That was it.
#47 evariste at 7:21 am on Jan 18, 2006
They're married now, it's really cute :-) At the time he had a crush on her but they were just friends.
#48 evariste at 7:41 am on Jan 18, 2006
Well, I am bloggie's foremost threadkiller.
#49 evariste at 7:42 am on Jan 18, 2006
Watch the master and learn. G'night bloggie :-)
#50 RIP Ford at 7:42 am on Jan 18, 2006
#48 evariste
Well, I am bloggie's foremost threadkiller.

Creater and destroyer, alpha and omega. :P
#51 RIP Ford at 7:43 am on Jan 18, 2006
'Night ev, get some sleep.
#52 evariste at 7:46 am on Jan 18, 2006
LOL RIPF. Lates :-) My eyes are closing.
#53 Stormi at 7:48 am on Jan 18, 2006
I never did any drugs either, neither as a youngster nor as a not-so-young-anymorester.

I smoked one cigarette one time, and I didn't inhale it, and I burned a hole in the carpet and almost set the house on fire and my mom beat my ass. Good times.

#54 Stormi at 7:49 am on Jan 18, 2006
I'm outta here. Going home. See y'all later.
#55 joem at 7:50 am on Jan 18, 2006
#49 evariste
Watch the master and learn. G'night bloggie :-)



G'night ev (I'm sure it's night-time somewhere..)
#56 WriterMom at 8:22 am on Jan 18, 2006
I remember one time in high school we all shared a funny cigarette. I remember thinking AHAHHHA now I have figured out how Paul Simon wrote all the songs in the Graceland album. A pretty lame reaction-don't you think?

That was all that it ever did for me. I like real life-sober, warts and all.
#57 סטרמי Stormi سترمي at 11:17 am on Jan 18, 2006
I don't smoke dope but I drink a lot of coffee...
#58 solus rex at 12:24 pm on Jan 18, 2006
Me too. The second part.
#59 evariste at 1:20 pm on Jan 18, 2006
#25 evariste
pilots wife-well, my uninformed and irresponsible speculation was fun while it lasted :-D

On second thought, the composition of these units is still interesting. We're prepositioning exactly the right assets for a strike on Iran. That's much too coincidental to be a coincidence.
#60 lady redhawk at 5:44 pm on Jan 18, 2006
ev, Confederate Yankee is also tracking military deployments - it looks like the Ronald Reagan is being moved into position.
#61 lady redhawk at 5:53 pm on Jan 18, 2006
CY reads, in part:

"It perhaps then, no accident that the nation's newest and largest aircraft carrier, CVN 76 Ronald Reagan has deployed to the western Pacific, where it could reposition to the Persian Gulf region relatively quickly. We also know that the 122nd Fighter Wing of the Indiana ANG is deploying up to 72 F-16s to "southwest Asia" in their largest deployment since the Berlin Crisis in 1961."
#62 Franco CBI at 6:02 pm on Jan 18, 2006
Pot was nice. Unlike alcohol, I actually prefered it in moderation. I haven't had it in almost 26 years now.

I had coke twice in high school - it seemed nice, but not worth the price, so I didn't touch it again until my Bolivia trip. Since I got it for free this time, I thought it was nice - more mellowing than stimulating. I wanted to listen to Stairway to Heaven (which just happened to be inspired by Andean music).

I tried speed twice - the first time it made me jittery and sick and I hated it, the second time I had it after a few beers and that took the rough edge off and it was cool, but I never used it again.

Never had acid, but I wouldn't mind having it once (and only once).
#63 floranista at 10:13 pm on Jan 18, 2006
#60 lady redhawk
ev, Confederate Yankee is also tracking military deployments - it looks like the Ronald Reagan is being moved into position.

lady red, Tom was telling me tonight that the destroyer USS Monson and the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln just left port (he works at the same waterfront).

We both think they are headed to the ME.
#64 evariste at 4:48 pm on Jan 24, 2006
I had a funny dream that I decided to share :-)

I was present at a formal social function, and President Bush walked up to me, grabbed my arm, and walked me aside and said in a low voice that I should take it easy with the blog posts putting together the pieces about which US military assets were headed to Iran. I said yes, mister President, and he squeezed my arm and walked off.
#65 cba γβα גב? ابت вба at 4:53 pm on Jan 24, 2006

I should take it easy with the blog posts putting together the pieces about which US military assets were headed to Iran

ev, it might have been your dream, but it was my thought.

Until I realised that, genius though you be, if you can put two and two together, probably so can one or two others.

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