discarded lies: sunday, march 18, 2018 11:41 am zst
Touché with a touch of bitché
daily archive: 10/09/2004
zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
Letter from Baghdad
You really should read this in its entirety. Letter from Baghdad

A lot of people have asked, why we are here. The short answer is that we are here to protect American interests. What then, are the bases of American interests? To me the simple answer to this question is to replace tyrany with freedom and liberty. I watched a speech by President Bush yesterday as he addressed the Veterans of Foreign Wars. His position is that free societies are peaceful societies and I agree with him. He said that we are trying to help Iraq and Afghanistan develop into free societies and he hopes that it will spread to other parts of the region. I agree with and support his efforts 100%. It is a worthwhile effort.

People never hear about the individuals involved in this process. They hear from the "retired generals club" (arm-chair quarterbacks), the critics, nay-sayers and everything negative. We hear terms like "quagmire" and "shock and awe". We hear the statistics about how many servicemembers have been killed since it all started, but we never hear about what those people did. How many people’s lives did they impact? How many times did they help out a family? How many times did they make a child smile? How many lives did they save, Americans or otherwise?

Where is the reporting on all the great things we have done over here? I see Iraqis denouncing the Americans on TV everyday just like you do. I have an advantage over you though. I have driven the streets of Baghdad and I’ve been out in the countryside. You know what I see? I see people waving and cheering us everywhere we go. I see children on the side of the road fascinated by all the big trucks they see rolling by. I see the smile on their faces when you throw an old man a cold bottle of water as you drive by. I see the delight in kids’ eyes when you toss them candy, or sometimes more importantly, a meal. They don’t hate us and they certainly aren’t afraid of us. You have to almost beat the kids off with a stick whenever you stop on a street. When they do this, their parents aren’t far away, watching to make sure junior doesn’t get in trouble, but always with a wave and a smile for us "evil" Americans. Where is the reporting on that? What about all the people who now have water, sewer and electric service for the first time in more than 13 years? You’ll never see a story on CNN about that. What about when we find families squatting in stables or garbage dumps, then help them to find a place to live? Ever see a story on CNN about that? You won’t hear about it, but it happens. I know it happens because I have done it. Just last week I helped relocate six families who were squatting in some of Saddam’s old horse stables into homes.

I’ve seen first hand that this place is in a shambles, but it’s not from this war. Sure you see the odd bombed out building here and there that was most likely bombed by the Coalition, but the rest is a result of neglect on the part of an evil dictator who let his people slip into or close to poverty while he hoarded money and built palaces. I heard it said on a documentary that Iraq is a first world country that was put under the rule of a third world dictator for 30 years. It’s true. This country has the resources to be one of the most prosperous in the world, yet it has all been wasted. We hope to change that.

(nbl ördög Johnson)
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zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
Order Theory to the Rescue
I love mathematicians. I don't claim to understand them, I just love them.
A small group of thinking men and women convened at Rutgers University last month to consider how order theory — a branch of abstract mathematics that deals with hierarchical relationships — could be applied to the war on terror.

It almost seems ridiculous for people who inhabit a world of concept lattices and partially ordered sets to think they can affect a war that is being fought on the streets of Baghdad and in the remote mountains of northern Pakistan. But the war on terror is also fought in cyberspace, and in the minds of people from Lahore to Los Angeles. Mathematicians are right at home in such abstract realms.

Theoretically, Farley said, abstract math could help intelligence officers figure out the most efficient way to disable a terrorist network.

Say it's cheaper or more practical to go after a terrorist cell's "middle management" rather than its leadership. How many of those lieutenants would you have to remove in order to disrupt communication between the top dogs and the field operatives? Are there one or two key individuals whose capture would completely cut off the chain of command?

Order theory is all about such questions.

Of course, many times the organizational structures of terrorist groups are unknown. Mathematical techniques could also be applied to that problem, by using computer programs that comb through giant databases looking for connections between individuals, locations or events. For example, a program might discover that everybody involved in a given attack attended the same London mosque. Or it might find large numbers of e-mail messages between members of one terrorist cell in Germany and another in the United States, suggesting that they may be working together.

Such data mining techniques are nothing new. But the explosion in computing power over the past few years has spurred innovation in the field.

Jafar Adibi, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California, is developing ways to find hidden links between known terrorists and their as-yet-unknown confederates.

"You're trying to detect major groups of these bad guys," Adibi said.

The technique relies on having an initial group of known terrorists. Then it analyzes things those known terrorists have in common with other people in the database, such as phone calls, places of worship, political affiliations or blood relation.

The program concludes that anybody who has enough connections of the right kind with a known terrorist probably is one also.

Adibi has tested his program using a database built from newspaper accounts and other publicly available information. He labels 20 percent of a terrorist group's members as "known" and challenges the program to find the rest. Right now, the system misses 20 percent of the remaining members, and three of the 10 people it does identify as "bad guys" aren't actually terrorists.

Adibi said he hopes to improve those numbers a bit. But even so, programs like his could help focus anti-terror efforts on the most likely suspects. Mass detentions by law enforcement authorities have often snared too many innocent people, Woo said. Britain has arrested more than 600 people on suspicion of terrorism since the Sept. 11 attacks, and convicted only 15 of them. By some counts, the United States has detained more than 5,000 foreign nationals under the provisions of the Patriot Act, alienating them and their families.

"Part of the war on terrorism is winning hearts and minds," said Woo, an analyst in the London office of Risk Management Solutions. The Newark, Calif.-based consulting firm assesses catastrophe risks for the banking and insurance industries.

Minds are the specialty of Vladimir Lefebvre, a cognitive scientist at the University of California in Irvine. The Russian-born researcher has spent his career developing ways of reducing human decision-making to mathematical equations. The work stems from a top-secret Soviet research project that Lefebvre worked on during the 1970s.

"I can compute feelings," he said with a grin.

Lefebvre's ideas are so obvious that you wonder if he might be kidding. Every person, he argues, has a view of the self that he or she uses as a tool for making decisions. That view can be influenced by the outside environment.

So in principle, there ought to be things we can do to make terrorists feel less sure about themselves or less ardent in their beliefs. The right strategy might even make them think of themselves as something other than terrorists.

Lefebvre believes human decision-making is so straightforward that simple equations can describe how an individual's behavior arises from his or her self-image as it is shaped by other people and the environment.

Stefan Schmidt, a New Mexico State University researcher who has worked with Lefebvre, offered a hypothetical example. Suppose, he said, terrorists were considering three points of entry into the United States — one in the Pacific Northwest, one in the Southwest and one in the Northeast. Looking at the level of security on the various borders, and considering other factors such as remoteness, terrorists might decide on the Southwest as the best place to cross.

Assume that border agents, on the other hand, are heavily guarding the Northeast border. They would benefit by making the Southwest seem more heavily patrolled than it really is, and the Northeast appear relatively unprotected. If they did a credible job, the terrorists would incorrectly choose the most secure border as their best bet and run a much higher chance of being caught.

Conceptually, this kind of reasoning is no different from military strategy. If you can plant an inaccurate idea in your opponent's head, you will have an advantage on the battlefield.

But actually doing that — at least for the time being — requires a combination of brilliance, instinct and luck that few people possess. Lefebvre would reduce the process of outwitting your opponent to a computer program.

In some ways, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have done just that. Computer scientist Kathleen M. Carley heads a lab that tries to simulate all kinds of social groups, including terrorist organizations.

The lab has built simulations of Hamas and al-Qaida by dumping newspaper articles and other publicly available information about the organizations into a computer database. A program then takes that information and looks for patterns and relationships between individuals. It finds weak and strong figures, power brokers, hidden relationships and people with crucial skills.

Then another program can predict what would happen if a specific individual were removed from the organization. After Israel's assassination of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in March, the program correctly predicted he would be succeeded by hard-liner Abdel Azziz Rantisi.

Three weeks later Israel assassinated Rantisi as well. Carley's lab predicted that Hamas political director Khaled Mashaal would succeed him, and posted its pick on the Internet.

This time, Hamas declined to reveal who had taken power for fear he too would be assassinated. But eventually it became known that Mashaal was indeed the one.

At that point, Carley said, "we were told to quit putting such predictions on the Web" by federal officials.

Mathematicians Offer Help in Terror Fight
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zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
Elections and Terrorism
From Townhall, Charles Krauthammer on Targeting our democracy
Why are we collectively nervous about terrorism as the election approaches? Because, as everyone knows, there are terrorists out there who would dearly love to hit us before the election. Why? To affect it. What does that mean? Do they want to affect it randomly?

Of course not. We know the terrorists' intent and strategy. We saw it on display in Spain, where a spectacular terror attack three days before the election set off the chain of events that brought down a government that had allied itself with the United States. The attack worked perfectly. Within weeks Spain had withdrawn its troops from Iraq.

Last month, terrorists set off a car bomb outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta in the middle of a neck-and-neck Australian election campaign and just three days before the only televised debate between the two candidates. The prime minister, John Howard, is a staunch U.S. ally in both Afghanistan and Iraq. His opponent, Mark Latham, has pledged to withdraw Australia from Iraq by Christmas.

The terrorists may be medieval primitives, but they know about cell phones and the Internet and fuel-laden commercial airliners. They also know about elections. Their obvious objective is to drive from power those governments most deeply involved in the war against them -- in Afghanistan, Iraq or anywhere else. The point is not only to radically alter an enemy nation's foreign policy -- as in Spain -- but to deter any other government contemplating similar support for the American-led war on terror.

But Spain and Australia -- Britain, with Tony Blair up for re-election next year, will surely be next -- are merely supporting actors. The real prize is America. An electoral repudiation of President Bush would be seen by the world as a repudiation of Bush's foreign policy, specifically his aggressive, pre-emptive and often unilateral prosecution of the war on terror, most especially Iraq. It would be a correct interpretation because John Kerry has made clear that he is fighting this election on precisely those grounds.

Does this mean that the bad guys want Kerry to win? Michael Kinsley with his usual drollery ridicules the idea by conjuring up the image of bin Laden ``as he sits in his cave studying materials from the League of Women Voters'' deciding to cast his absentee ballot for the Democrats.

The point, of course, is that the terrorists have no particular interest in Kerry. What they care about is Bush. He could be running against a moose, and Osama and Zarqawi would be for the moose.

How to elect the moose? A second direct attack on the United States would backfire. As 9/11 showed, attacking the American homeland would cause a rallying around the president, whoever he is. America is not Spain. Such an attack would probably result in a Bush landslide.

It is still prudent to be on high alert at home, because it is not wise to bank on the political sophistication of the enemy. The enemy is nonetheless far more likely to understand that the way to bring down Bush is not by attack at home but by debilitating guerrilla war abroad, namely in Iraq. Hence the escalation of bloodshed by Zarqawi and Co. It is not just aimed at intimidating Iraqis and preventing the Iraqi election. It is aimed at demoralizing Americans and affecting the American election.

The Islamists and Baathists in Iraq are conducting their own Tet Offensive with the same objective as the one in 1968: to demoralize the American citizenry, convince it that the war cannot be won, and ultimately encourage it to reject the administration that brought the war upon them and that is the more unequivocal about seeing it through.

It is perfectly true, as Bush critics constantly point out, that many millions around the world -- from Jacques Chirac to the Arab street -- dislike Bush and want to see him defeated. It is ridiculous to pretend that Osama, Zarqawi and the other barbarians are not among them.

(nbl: Jim Russell)
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zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
Thinly Veiled Anti-Semitism
Zionism has become a dirty word in some places. The first time I heard the line "I'm against zionism, not against Jews," was in 2002 and I laughed in surprise because I didn't think I'd hear such a thing from someone close to me. Since then I don't laugh about it anymore. From FrontPage magazine:
On our campuses, students hear speeches vilifying the word “Zionists.? They are shocked to hear “Zionist? said with such venom and that “Zionism is racism.? They are most shocked when they discover that such accusations are often made by Jews themselves. Many students have no idea how to respond.

UC-Irvine is a case in point. Last spring, the Muslim Student Union hosted a rally at which one speaker encouraged rally-goers to “purge your religious or your political circle from any effects of Zionism, and the world will be a better place for all of us.? Another speaker said, “I feel sorry for Jewish students on this campus, and I feel sorry for all Jewish people throughout history, that their religion got hijacked by the Zionism.? (These speeches can be seen and heard on the www.StandWithUs.com website.) While these speakers seem to make a distinction between Zionists and Jews, their rhetoric is hate speech that incites hostility against Jews. It is simply thinly veiled anti-Semitism.
All good people must act. We must stop ignoring defamatory attacks on Zionism. We must make it clear that the very phrase “Zionism is racism? is an absurdity. We must make it clear that support for Israel is support for the values of social justice and human rights. We must never miss an opportunity to teach people, even our Jewish accusers, elementary facts about Jews, Israel, and the world around it.

  • Israel has 15 officially recognized religions.

  • Israel’s over 1.2 million Arab citizens have Arab-Israeli political parties and Arab-Israelis representing them in the Knesset.

  • Arabic is an officially recognized language in Israel, along with Hebrew.

  • Though Arabs make up 20 percent of the Israeli population and live as full citizens inside Israel, the future Palestinian state refuses to allow any Jews. The Palestinian Authority wants all Jewish communities currently in the territories to be transferred out of the future Palestinian State so that the areas will become Judenrein (the Nazi term for Jew-free), like many other Arab countries.

  • Jews have always been active humanitarians on the frontlines of most civil rights causes. Israel’s humanitarian record continues the tradition of coming to the aid of countries in need. As we know, Israel took in the Vietnamese boat people when the world ignored them. Israeli-Arabs have full civil rights in Israel they do not have anywhere in the Arab world, including women’s and gay rights.

  • Very few nations or peoples have come to the aid of Jews during the many disastrous times in our own history, when they were chosen for extermination or deportation. Zionism and the rebirth of Israel are part of the Jewish answer to such tragic helplessness.

  • There are more than 50 Muslim countries in the world. Jews cannot safely live in any of them. Today, many Jews feel unsafe even in some European countries.

Zionism, Not Racism
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zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
The Iraq Debate
Judging from the current Iraq debate, you might think Saddam Hussein didn't use poison gas on the Kurds and the Iranians in the 1980s. Or that 500,000 American troops hadn't been sent to the Gulf in 1990-91 to reverse his invasion of Kuwait. Or that Saddam hadn't tried to assassinate former President George H.W. Bush in 1993, or long harbored one of the bombers who attacked the World Trade Center that year.

It might also be easy to forget that Saddam never came clean about his weapons of mass destruction, resulting in Bill Clinton's Desert Fox bombing of 1998 and the ejection of U.N. inspectors. Or that he necessitated a huge U.S. troop presence in the region, which Osama bin Laden cited in his 1998 fatwa as one of his primary grievances against America.

It's clear why John Kerry doesn't want to talk about these things, having decided for now that Iraq was "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time." Count us a bit mystified, however, that the incumbent hasn't done a better job putting his Iraq policy in this context. Fortunately for President Bush, Congressional Oil for Food hearings and Charles Duelfer's final weapons inspections report for the CIA have come along this week to remind us all that the "containment" of Saddam was neither as blissful as certain partisans remember it, nor even sustainable.

"By 2000-2001, Saddam had managed to mitigate many of the effects of sanctions and undermine their international support," Mr. Duelfer writes. "Iraq was within striking distance of a de facto end to the sanctions regime."

We realize that some of our media friends think the salient news here is the old news: that Saddam did not possess large stockpiles of WMDs when Coalition forces invaded in March 2003. But Mr. Duelfer explicitly rejects the facile conclusion that therefore sanctions were working. Among his other findings, based in part on interviews with Saddam himself and other senior regime figures:

• Saddam believed weapons of mass destruction were essential to the preservation of his power, especially during the Iran-Iraq and 1991 Gulf wars.

• He engaged in strategic deception intended to suggest that he retained WMD.

• He fully intended to resume real WMD production after the expected lifting of U.N. sanctions, and he maintained weapons programs that put him in "material breach" of U.N. resolutions including 1441.

• And he instituted an epic bribery scheme aimed primarily at three of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, with the intent of having them help lift those sanctions.

"Saddam personally approved and removed all names of voucher recipients," under the Oil for Food program, Mr. Duelfer writes. Alleged beneficiaries of such bribes include individuals in China, as well as some with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Jacques Chirac.

As Congressmen Chris Shays's House International Relations Committee heard in testimony on Tuesday, France, Russia and China did in fact work hard to help Saddam skirt and escape sanctions. One Iraqi intelligence report uncovered by Mr. Duelfer says that a French politician assured Saddam in a letter that France would use its U.N. veto against any U.S. effort to attack Iraq -- as indeed France later threatened to do.

Evidence also continues to mount that U.N. Oil for Food Program director Benon Sevan was among those on Saddam's payroll. (He denies it.) And contrary to earlier claims that Secretary General Kofi Annan's son Kojo severed connections with the Swiss-based firm Cotecna prior to it winning its Oil for Food inspections contract, we now know that Kojo was kept on the company payroll for another year. We eagerly await the promised interim report from the U.N.'s Paul Volcker-led Oil for Food review panel, and hope in the interests of an informed electorate that it can be delivered soon.
From WSJ (subscription only), Iraq Amnesia

(nbl: Jim Russell)
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evariste in Discarded Lies:
Coming out of the Closet
This opinion piece, by LGF regular Zakistan, will be appearing in the independent student-run newspaper (since 1956!) at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the UWM Post, next week. I'm honored to have the opportunity to scoop them and publish Zak's excellent piece first.
Coming out of the closet can be liberating, but it often entails risk. The risk is that some of your friends, colleagues and acquaintances may come to think differently about you, perhaps negatively so. Nevertheless, you feel obliged to take the weight off your chest and publicly break the silence, to come clean.
The rest of Zak's piece, and my commentary, after the jump…
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zorkmidden in Discarded Lies:
Iran and Iraq
Iranian Revolutionary Guards occupy Iraqi soil
Crack troops of the Qods Force (Jerusalem Force), the extraterritorial force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, operating out of their base in the border town of Mehran, have seized Iraqi territories in Zeyn al-Qos, Seif Sa’ad and al-Amarah regions, according to reports from the area.

In recent months, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have moved their main headquarters from central Iranian provinces to those on the Iran-Iraq border. These include Marivan in the north, Mehran in the center, and Shalamcheh in the south. Qods Force’s commanders oversee and direct their operations inside Iraq from these border bases.

The principle task of the Qods Force is to spread Iran’s “Islamic revolution? to other parts of the Muslim world. The Qods Force has been particularly active in the Iraqi theater and last April, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei decorated Qods Force Commandant General Qassem Soleimani for his “success in promoting Islamic revolution in Iraq.? News of the decoration was not made public.

Iraqi sources say that Iran has been setting up and financing “Islamic libraries? throughout southern and central Iraq and uses them as a conduit to wage propaganda and recruit young Iraqis.

From activistchat
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kianb in Pahlaver:
Should the U.S. sell nuclear fuel to Iran?
You might think I am crazy, but apparently this is what John Kerry thinks about the Nuclear mullahs:

KERRY: With respect to Iran, the British, French, and Germans were the ones who initiated an effort without the United States, regrettably, to begin to try to move to curb the nuclear possibilities in Iran. I believe we could have done better. I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel, test them, see whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes. If they weren't willing to work a deal, then we could have put sanctions together. The president did nothing.

I said apparently, because he may issue a statement everytime he wants, claiming it was "taken out of context".

Christopher Adamo discovers who will really benefit from Kerry's presidency. In A Grim Summary Of Kerry Supporters, he writes:

It is reasonable to conclude that Kerry truly believes such insanity to be good policy, despite the harsh lessons that should have been learned from Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter’s nearly identical agreement with North Korea in 1994. To Clinton and Carter’s apparent astonishment, North Korea now brandishes its nuclear capability as a threat against not only its neighbors, but also the U.S.

So, it should come as no surprise that the militant Islamists who control Iran prefer John Kerry to George Bush as president. Though seemingly less ominous in the minds of most Americans these days, culturally and politically, this is the same Iran where twenty-five years ago the U.S. Embassy was overtaken, and its staff held hostage for over a year.

This is the same Iran that supports Hezbollah and other murderous Islamic terrorist organizations throughout the world. And this is the same Iran from which a steady flow of militant insurgents is streaming into Iraq, with the ultimate goal of defeating American efforts to subdue al Qaeda and its terrorist associates.

Having made so much political hay over the fact that U.S. forces have not happened across any cache of nuclear bombs in Iraq, Kerry apparently intends to ensure that someday soon, they will be readily available next door in Iran.

Clearly, Kerry’s supporters among the Iranians do not have America’s best interests in mind. But what of the other “constituencies,? both inside and outside of this nation’s borders, that lend their loyalty to him?

The leadership of the United Nations, to whom Kerry would readily “outsource? America’s security interests, clearly prefers his meandering ways to the decisiveness and resolve of George W. Bush. The corrupt, under-the-table dealings of the “Oil for Food? program, by which Secretary General Kofi Annan and others padded their pockets while enriching and enabling Saddam Hussein, serve as an inarguable harbinger of what the world can expect if a “President Kerry? assumes ultimate control of America’s dealings with the UN.

Surely, such a scenario presents a far more rosy future for that organization, though not so for the oppressed peoples of the world whom it was ostensibly instituted to protect.

Islamic constituency groups in this country, having frequently displayed divided loyalties when addressing the subject of terrorist attacks on the American homeland, are predictably gravitating towards the Kerry camp. All the while, they assert that Kerry is more sympathetic to their “plight? than a president who wants to seriously confront the threat of terrorism on American soil and abroad.

Foreign governments, resentful of American hegemony on the world scene and seeking to undermine it, have indicated their hopes for a Kerry victory in November. North Korea has already endorsed his candidacy in a highly publicized statement last spring.

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